State of the Race – Is It Too Early To Start Predicting?
Yeah, a little. If predictions made in October were right last year Meryl Streep would have walked away with her third Oscar earlier this year instead of Sandra Bullock. However, it’s still fun to throw out predictions now and see how much they change over the next few months, as more films are released and reviews come out and buzz builds and buzz dies. There have been some really great discussions going on over at Awards Daily, and I was hoping I could get some discussions going with my readership here as well.
My predictions for the four acting categories after the cut.
A lot of this is based on trailers and buzz, but a few of these performances I have actually seen and fully believe are awards worthy.
Best Actor
- James Franco – 127 Hours
- Mark Wahlberg – The Fighter
- Colin Firth – The King’s Speech
- Leonardo DiCaprio – Shutter Island (or Inception)
- Jesse Eisenberg – The Social Network (I kind of want him to win)
other possibilities include:
- Javier Bardem – Biutiful
- Ryan Gosling – Blue Valentine
- Robert Duvall – Get Low
- Sean Penn – Fair Game
- Jake Gyllenhaal – Love and Other Drugs
- Andrew Garfield – Never Let Me Go
- Michael Douglas – Solitary Man
- Stephen Dorff – Somewhere
- Jeff Bridges – True Grit
Best Actress
- Natalie Portman – Black Swan
- Michelle Williams – Blue Valentine
- Naomi Watts – Fair Game
- Julianne Moore – The Kids Are All Right
- Annette Bening – The Kids Are All Right
other possibilities include:
- Lesley Manville – Another Year
- Hilary Swank – Conviction
- Anne Hathaway – Love and Other Drugs
- Sally Hawkins – Made In Dagenham
- Carey Mulligan – Never Let Me Go
- Nicole Kidman – Rabbit Hole
- Diane Lane – Secretariat
- Jennifer Lawrence – Winter’s Bone
Best Supporting Actor
- Christian Bale – The Fighter
- Mark Ruffalo – The Kids Are All Right
- Geoffrey Rush – The King’s Speech
- Andrew Garfield – The Social Network
- Jeremy Renner – The Town
Other possibilities include:
- Jim Broadbent – Another Year
- Vincent Cassel – Black Swan
- Richard Jenkins – Eat Pray Love
- Bill Murray – Get Low
- Harrison Ford – Morning Glory
- John Malkovich – Secretariat
- Armie Hammer – The Social Network
- Justin Timberlake – The Social Network
- Matt Damon – True Grit
- Josh Brolin – True Grit
- Michael Douglas – Wall Street: Money Never Sleeps
Best Supporting Actress:
- Barbara Hershey – Black Swan
- Helena Bonham Carter – The King’s Speech
- Marion Cotillard – Inception
- Elle Fanning – Somewhere
- Hailee Steinfeld – True Grit
Other possibilities:
- Ruth Sheen – Another Year
- Melissa Leo – The Fighter
- Sissy Spacek – Get Low
- Miranda Richardson – Made in Dagenham
- Michelle Williams – Shutter Island
- Rooney Mara – The Social Network
Notice how full all of the categories are with contenders – this is what happens when you start predicting this early. Give it a month or two and we’ll have it narrowed down a bit. But if last year’s Best Supporting Actress category taught us anything, it’s that the Academy likes to throw a curve ball the morning of the nominations.
What do you guys think? What are you guesses?
Posted on October 20, 2010, in Contenders, the Academy Awards and tagged contenders, predicitions, the Academy Awards. Bookmark the permalink. 2 Comments.
the diary of a film history fanatic 
I really doubt Shutter Island or Inception get any acting noms. The Best Actor and Actress races are way to strong this year for the Academy to reach all the way back to the beginning of the year. Inception will probably get a nod for Best Picture (since they’re doing 10 again this year) and a slew of technical noms.
Just from what I’ve seen this year, I’ll be pulling for the following performances: Annette Bening in The Kids Are Alright (I’d say she’s a lock and Julianne Moore gets shut out), Jennifer Lawrence in Winter’s Bone (this will never happen but I’m really rooting for her–probably an Independent Spirt nom, instead), Lesley Mannville in Another Year (I’d run her as Supporting Actress for a better shot at a nom). I’d love to see Sam Rockwell get his first nomination for Conviction, not that he would win or even that that particular performance is more worthy than his stellar work in Moon. It would be more of a ‘sorry we haven’t recognized you before’ kind of nomination.
I really thought Jesse Eisenberg was terrific in The Social Network.