Most years the DGA coincides exactly with the five nominees at the Academy Awards. But there have been year where one director gets a DGA, but not an Oscar nod. There are even years where two of the DGA nominees don’t make it to Oscar. Right now, I think Fincher is mostly definitely the closest thing we have to a lock.

This year’s nominees are:

• Darren Aronofsky – Black Swan
• David Fincher – The Social Network
• Tom Hopper – The King’s Speech
• Christopher Nolan – Inception
• David O. Russell – The Fighter