Final Predictions for the 83rd Academy Awards

This year has been a hard one to cope with, mostly because the race seemed pretty set early on and then changed so drastically about a month ago. I’d like to say a change like that is refreshing, but I just can’t because I don’t like how it’s changed. I, for one, agreed with the critics and precursors with their choice of The Social Network for Best Picture. Then the guilds came and changed everything and gave their top honors to The King’s Speech. I think I’m still a bit in shock from it all (and maybe a little bit in denial). So now, the day before the awards, I’ve got to make my final predictions and I find myself unable. My head says, “look at the wind, it’s blowing towards The King’s Speech,” but my heart is saying, “The Social Network is better, stick with it til the bitter end.” Long story short, after the cut you’ll see if I decided to go with my heart or with my head.

I’m going to make you wait a bit first, though, and will start with some of the “smaller” categories. These are the categories in which I haven’t seen the films, so I am guessing kind of blind. My prediction is in italics.

Best Short Film, Animated
Day & Night
The Gruffalo
Let’s Pollute
The Lost Thing
Madagascar, a Journey Diary

Best Short Film, Live Action
The Confession
The Crush
God of Love
Na Wewe
Wish 143

Best Documentary, Short Subject
Killing in the Name
Poster Girl
Strangers No More
Sun Come Up
The Warriors of Qiugang

I sort of really want Banksy to win an Oscar just because Exit Through The Gift Shop was just so damn entertaining. I wouldn’t be surprised, though, if Inside Job or Restrepo takes the win.

Best Documentary
Exit Through the Gift Shop
Inside Job
Waste Land

I think just about the only categories in which Inception has a fighting chance is in the tech categories, and rightfully so.

Best Sound
The King’s Speech
The Social Network
True Grit

Best Sound Editing
Toy Story 3
TRON: Legacy
True Grit

Best Visual Effects
Alice in Wonderland
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 1
Iron Man 2

Best Art Direction
Alice in Wonderland
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 1
The King’s Speech
True Grit

To paraphrase Roger Ebert from last year, never bet against well dressed royals.

Best Costume Design
Alice in Wonderland
I Am Love
The King’s Speech
The Tempest
True Grit

In a perfect world Hans Zimmer wins this, but in a TKS-sweep world Alexandre Desplat wins. He’s yet to win, though, so I guess he’s “due.” I would just like to say my favorite of his scores is The Painted Veil (2006) and it was NOT nominated for an Academy Award. Go give it a listen, you won’t regret it.

Best Original Score
127 Hours – A.R. Rahman
How to Train Your Dragon – John Powell
Inception – Hans Zimmer
The King’s Speech – Alexandre Desplat
The Social Network – Trent Reznor, Atticus Ross

Best Original Song
127 Hour- A.R. Rahman, Rollo Armstrong, Dido(“If I Rise”)
Country Strong – Bob DiPiero, Tom Douglas, Hillary Lindsey, Troy Verges(“Coming Home”)
Tangled – Alan Menken, Glenn Slater(“I See the Light”)
Toy Story 3 – Randy Newman(“We Belong Together”)

The makeup for Barney’s Version looks amazing, but Rick Baker is an institution.

Best Makeup
Barney’s Version
The Way Back
The Wolfman

I haven’t seen any of these films, so I have no clue here.

Best Foreign Film
Biutiful (Mexico)
Dogtooth (Greece)
Hors la Loi (Outside the Law) (Algeria)
Incendies (Canada)
In a Better World (Denmark)

I don’t want to live in a world where The Social Network loses this award.

Best Editing
127 Hours
Black Swan
The Fighter
The King’s Speech
The Social Network

Roger Deakins has been nominated 9 times and never won, this may well be his pity year.

Best Cinematography
Black Swan
The King’s Speech
The Social Network
True Grit

Again, in a perfect year Christopher Nolan finally wins a screenplay Oscar, in a TKS-sweep year, he does not.

Best Original Screenplay:
Another Year
The Fighter
The Kids Are All Right
The King’s Speech

This is probably the most set category of the night.

Best Adapted Screenplay:
127 Hours
The Social Network
Toy Story 3
True Grit
Winter’s Bone

I loved The Illusionist, but there’s no beating TS3.

Best Animated Feature
How To Train Your Dragon
The Illusionist
Toy Story 3

I want Hailee Steinfeld to win. I think Hailee Steinfeld is going to win. Say it with me, “Hailee Steinfeld is going to win.”

Best Supporting Actress

Amy Adams – The Fighter
Helena Bonham Carter – The King’s Speech
Melissa Leo – The Fighter
Hailee Stienfeld – True Grit
Jacki Weaver – Animal Kingdom

I still want John Hawkes to win, but I’m still so delighted at his nomination that I can’t be sad when Christian Bale wins.

Best Supporting Actor:
Christian Bale – The Fighter
John Hawkes – Winter’s Bone
Jeremy Renner – The Town
Mark Ruffalo – The Kids Are All Right
Geoffrey Rush – The King’s Speech

I couldn’t have asked for a better list of actresses here. I’d be happy with any of them winning.

Best Actress:
Annette Bening – The Kids Are All Right
Nicole Kidman – Rabbit Hole
Jennifer Lawrence – Winter’s Bone
Natalie Portman – Black Swan
Michelle Williams –  Blue Valentine

Oh Jesse Eisenberg, your time will come. It will. I just wish Colin had won last year instead.

Best Actor:
Javier Bardem – Biutiful
Jeff Bridges – True Grit
Jesse Eisenberg – The Social Network
Colin Firth – The King’s Speech
James Franco – 127 Hours

Fincher has won everything there is to win except the DGA. This I am still trying to fathom. Here’s hoping the Academy realizes the DGA got it wrong.

Best Director:
Darren Aronofsky – Black Swan
David Fincher – The Social Network
Tom Hooper – The King’s Speech
David O. Russell – The Fighter
The Coen Bros. – True Grit

So am I going with my heart or my head? Is it possible that TKS can take the big prize even if TSN wins Editing and Screenplay and Director? Ask The Pianist about that.

Best Picture:
127 Hours
Black Swan
The Fighter
The Kids Are All Right
The King’s Speech
The Social Network
Toy Story 3
True Grit
Winter’s Bone

Maybe I’ve picked the wrong horse to back. Maybe I’ll lose tomorrow night and cry and be sad. But we won’t know for at least ten years which film is truly the timeless, best example of filmmaking for the year of 2010. All I know is what I feel. To quote Woody Allen, “The heart wants what the heart wants.”

About Marya E. Gates

Cinephile to the max.

Posted on February 26, 2011, in the Academy Awards and tagged , , . Bookmark the permalink. 10 Comments.

  1. I agree with pretty much all of your predictions but I think there may be some surprises. Big one (and one I would love) would be if Michelle Williams beat Natalie Portman. Don’t get me wrong, I love Natalie but I believe if she wasn’t nominated Michelle would run away with the award.

  2. I don’t agree with you about who should win best actor but I agree with you about Colin Firth winning last year. This is something I felt the Oscars have done a lot. They want to give the award to someone the year before but they gave it someone else because they couldn’t really decide. So the next year when that actor is in another film where there performance isn’t as great as the year before, they give it to them. To kind of make up for it. I’m always left like what? this isn’t the performance they deserve an Oscar for! but oh well. let’s see what happens.

    But I definitely agree with you about Natalie and Christian winning. and I really think Hailee deserves it too!

  3. I would love to put down TSN but my head won out in the end. I’m so happy you put Hailee too because I refuse to accept that she won’t win. I believe she might and that’s good enough for me. The only thing I disagree with really is that Alice in Wonderland will probably take Best Costume Design or Art Direction as lame as that movie was.

  4. I like your predictions. Good for you for going with your heart. But are you sure? I think you are also going with your head.

    I really liked the Social Network. I didn’t expect to like it – sounded boring but it was terrific. And of course politicallly it is timely but then I thought that about Up in the Air and I was wrong – of course the Hurt Locker was timely too and OMG I agreed with that win.

    I will not be surprised if The Social Network wins Best Picture. We have seen this before where with Gladiator – was behind on the wins against Traffic at the finish and then did win. I am thinking Kings Speech will win the acting award and so on but not the big finish.

    I think however that there is a good change that The fighter will take both supporting roles.

    One would think that Alice should win costume design – but fanatasty and SciFi rarely do. For some reason the Academy loves well done historic costume even though its a different kind of creativity.

    This will be fun to watch. 🙂

  5. Sorry about all the typos.

  6. I have now seen The Kings Speech. If it wins I will wonder what in hell the Academy was thinking. It’s a nice story. Colin is adorable as usual. Who didn’t love the Qeen Mother.

    It lacked in its portrayal of the fear Bertie experienced knowing that it was possible that he would be king because his brother was not going to marry appropriatey even before he met Mrs Simpson. It was already believed that Elizabeth would eventually be queen because there was no one else.

    Unless the viewer is old enough to truly understand the time period and how the world was in danger from Hitler the story lacks urgency. I felt it had poor pacing – all one note. Did I want to see how the story turned out? Yes. But there wasn’t any energy.

    And the performances of Firth and Rush are wonderful – but it reminded me of a Masterpiece Theater production with too much music. Music that sounded a lot like Baroque masters. I think I would have liked it better as a play.

    Colin Firth will win the Oscar but it is the gee-we-are-sorry Oscar because it’s for the wrong perfomance.

    Oh well, my favorite movie this year was The Fighter.

  7. As much as I would kill for Nolan to win for screenplay, the fact remains the Academy has an unreasonable hard on for The King’s Speech so original screenplay will probably go to that movie rather Inception, despite it should win. Check out my list and opinions when you can!

  8. “Hailee Steinfeld is going to win.”!! Bale and Leo, out! I would love if Nolan, so well deserved, win in original screenplay; DRAGON in Animated Feature; INCEPTION (ou DRAGON!) in Original Score…

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